講左上面段廢話，都系想講今年內美國、中國都唔會想經濟有大問題出現。香港，暫時都仲系穩陣。

不過，講真如果ＧＷ都仲可以依家升多２０％，就真系有泡沫了！

Although you are not the GWF residents anymore, please respect to our GWF society by not creating inquietude. Other than you, we believe our value on GWF is correct.

"the price of SkyTower rose 30% up (from 3xxx to 4xxx (facing airport) and 4xxx to 5xxx (facing habour))".???  
Sky Tower face the harbour?? where?? I can't see where is the harbour?


I don't agree with you wooow138. GWF is a guarantee waterfront development that face Kai Tak airport and HK island. We have bus and ferry terminal on the door with the upcoming MTR station that potentially be built on the existing car park area, just a 5 mins walk to our GWF.

Yet Sky Tower is an inland development that far away to the waterfront. It is situated close to the main driveway, resulting serious traffic noise and air pollution problem. The recent confirmation on building an office tower next to the SkyTower will definitely be obstructed part of their view, creating a face to face situation. The office facade would also inevitably create glare to their resident which make them feel uncomfortable during sunny days. In transportation, the future Shatin Central Link on the Sky Tower will be more far away than the GWF.


I understand you sold your flat was a mistake that miss the chance for the Kai Tak and  Shatin Central Link development with its potential opportunities. But dun be sad, come and buy again now!

[ 本帖最後由 happycouple 於 2008-6-13 12:36 AM 編輯 ]

1. HSI drops c.28% from Nov 07 until now. Centa-City Leading index was up 19% during that period. Obviously,the correlation is low in past eight months.

2. When US int rate starts to go up in Dec 03 (c.1% federal fund rate) till July 07 (c.5% federal fund rate), Centa-City Leading index (中原城市領先指數) was up 51%. In the interest rate down cycle from July 07 till now, the index was up by 28%. Interest rate and stock price are not the structural determining factor of property price. They are only sentiment for short term price volality. Essential factor is supply and demand.

3. Many people see a lot of negative sentiment after the market turns bear. eg. rising int rate, rising energy price, social instability....etc. However, we have to really quantify the impact before we know whether it is only an excuse for cyclic movement or it really hurts the fundamental. eg. How 1% chg in int rate will impact the company's EPS?......etc

4. No matter stock or property market, we have to distinguish the long term structural cycle and shorter term volality. And, after considering own time horizon and ability to accept risk, decides whether we are playing the structural or cyclic cycle.

haha ＄6000﹣＄7000＋可能買唔到半山bor, 西環都未得，幾十年Ｄ舊樓就唔知啦。
其實投資唔同投機，一買完就賣叫炒樓。你引述http://the-sun.on.cc/channels/fi ... 612012732_0000.html 篇報導係一個炒樓失敗個案，我唔覺得物業本身地點及交通有問題。即使一個值得投資的地方在不適當時機放賣也可蝕讓，無咩特別。


[ 本帖最後由 jocdic 於 2008-6-13 12:14 PM 編輯 ]

First of all, everyone has their own opinion here, may I ask what is forum stands for? Secondly, my answer to happycouple, I mainly was talking about the VALUE of ALL mid-price properties and simply used Sky Tower for example since it is in the same district. Let me specify here, most of the 300'-600' flats rose at least 20%+ in the past two years (not even talking about the real 豪宅). My only bad is that I should add "airport SIDE" and "harbour SIDE" in the sentence. To kcvincent, hm..define what's net effect first. "Interest rate and stock price (meaning the stock market, right?) are not the structural determining factor of property price." Yes, of course, developers can always list out whatever the price they want, if they find out you earn more from the stock market, just rip you more off. Demand and Supply? I guess this can only apply to the real 豪宅 (1000'-4000'+) and demographic aging is also a problem in HK, but this is a further down discussion; and to jocdic, simply go to midland.com.hk and search 西半山, plenty of choices there from $3M-5M, avg $6000-7000+ sq ft for 400'-600'+, though not brand new buildings, the point is liquidity ratio high, 抗跌能力強.  
Anyways, I may upset some people here and will vanish in this forum for a while. Once again, my advice is ONLY to the investors, if you are the owners, no need to worry as my points are meaningless, right? Today HSI and China A dropped again...as an analyst, would love to share more but I guess no one would like to listen....chao...

I think this forum always allow people to express different point of views, you cannot force others to respect what you said even though you are an analyst.  To me, 每個人搬過幾次屋，有留意新聞，住咗香港咁耐，都會有Ｄ經驗／睇法。 If you believe you are far better then others, why not stay and take the challenge in the discussion instead of "vanish in this forum for a while"?　However if you think everyone here should just listen without thinking, this is not the right place.

it is real....  as wooow138  said..  the economy will be quite bad in coming months as we read newspapers.

"中原城市領先指數CCL最新報73.23點　較調整期低谷回升2.5"
我想大眾必定是傻的. 咁簡單o既分析都唔明.
點解d agent 咁得閒!

There are many different angles to analyse the situation. Everyone can learn even if we have different opinions given the opinions are reasonable.

Price of new flat, ie. new property, only contributes to a small part of the property market. Historical correlation of HSI and centdata index already showed that stock market and property market are not necessarily move in line. Moreover, property market is a low price elasticity market. The uptrend of property price (I mean the whole property sector) in last 2 yrs are driven by declining supply. The more increment in higher end expensive property market is due to more severe supply demand gap.

At the end of the day, everyone has their own time horizon. No matter stock or property, if we want to analyse structural long term trend based on fundamental factor, then don't be blind by the short term volatile movement. Market is inefficient in short term. On the other hand, if we want to analyse the short term trend, better focus on event-driven or liquidity driven approach. Worst case is mixing them up, using trading idea as long term investment or vice versa.

Just share 2 cents of my thought and hope this forum can provide some light for others to make their own decision.

Any one know some medium banks raise the interest rate? I receive a letter from my bank for that.

股市又趺，銀行又開始加息。

So, what percentage you think the price will drop in 2nd half of 2008? 10%?

if u r agent, more than 50%!